Difference between expected winning percentage calculated from pre-season class Elo ratings and actual winning percentage

Updated: Week 13, 2026

The pre-season class Elo rating is a good indicator of what we would reliably expect from the team, based on the past couple of seasons' worth of performances. The greater the over- or under-performance of actual regular season wins against this expectation, we rate as less or more disappointing the season has been.

Disappointment is the difference between the pre-season line and actual winning percentage, multiplied by 100. Gap is the difference between the Disappointment Line expressed in expected win and actual wins.
Chart: Stats Drop p/b Maroon ObserverSource: Subscribe hereGet the dataDownload image