How Accurate Are Punxsutawney Phil's Predictions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware?

Fortune teller or fraud? An analysis of Punxsutawney Phil's predictions for the last 50 years show just how accurate the groundhog's annual forecast is.

Areas are divided by climate divisions designated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. An area is considered to have had six more weeks of winter that year if temperatures that February and March were lower or the same as historical average, and an early spring if higher. The historical average temperature of the area is measured from 1895 to 2022.

Phil has an accuracy rate of 46% nationwide.
Map: Nina Lin Source: NOAA, Punxsutawney Groundhog Club