Calibration by forecaster

Probability that a flight cancels or arrives more than 90 minutes late, forecast made 20–24 hours before departure. In forecast bins below 25%, which hold 96% of Dory's predictions, Dory's forecasts are within 0.3 percentage points of the observed rate on average (CatBoost: 0.6). In bins of 25% or more: Dory 2.1, CatBoost 4.6.τ (minutes)15306090120180Lead time (hours)0–44–88–1212–1616–2020–24