Day-ahead energy price probability density function

Probability (vertical axis) of encountering a day-ahead energy price ($/MWh, horizontal axis) in ERCOT Houston in 2024. The area of the shaded region represents the probability of day-ahead energy prices falling above $25/MWh.

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Represents a fitted lognormal distribution with μ = 3.01 and σ = 0.44.

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