The 128 paths to victory

All permutations of the 7 likeliest tipping point states based on 40,000 simulations from our model, along with the probability of every permutation and Kamala Harris' chance of winning the Electoral College in each scenario

Note: Harris is assigned a default number of electoral votes in each scenario, meaning each state aside from the 7 tipping point states is assigned to the candidate who currently leads in that state's forecast.
Updated October 22, 2024Get the data