Graph 3: Employment Growth (%)
Note: Covariates include Employment Share, Tax Share, Technology Share, Economic Freedom Index, Educational Attainment (High School Graduate or Higher) and House Price Index. Donor weights: WA (52%), RI (30%), MA (18%). Pre-treatment RMSPE = 0.65. Treatment year is 2021. Permutation placebo testing reveals negative and significant effects for California relative to its synthetic control in 2023, with standardized empirical p-value of 0.08. Sources: Fraser Institute, FRED, BEA, FHFA, and U.S. Census Bureau.