Democrats have few clear GOP targets

Republican-held Senate seats up in 2026 that leaned fewer than 20 points toward the president's party in the 2024 presidential election, with the incumbent, race rating, and Kalshi's win probability for the GOP (as of Sept. 7, 2025)

*Special election with an appointed incumbent
†Republican may face an independent in a head-to-head race instead of a Democrat.
"OPEN" signifies no incumbent is seeking reelection. Race rating is the median rating across the ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The 2024 Lean is a state's margin in the 2024 presidential race vs. the national popular vote margin (Trump won by 1.5 percentage points).
Source: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Kalshi, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball