Chart 1 — Presidential Approval vs. Predicted Democratic House Seats (2026)

Other variables held at base-case values. Approval of 37% (current) highlighted. House majority = 218 seats.

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Source: David Schultz forecast model. Seat projection uses presidential approval as primary variable (40% weight). Anchors: 37% approval → ~225 seats (base case); ~26% approval → ~253 seats (blue wave analog to Bush 2006). All other model variables (generic ballot, economic anxiety, enthusiasm) held at base-case values.

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