Government's true fiscal deficit could be as high as 5.5% in financial year 2020

The total revenue shortfall in FY20 is estimated to be 1.6 trillion rupees. Off budget liabilities include special bond issuance and NSSF loans undertaken by public sector entities. For the years between 2001-02 to 2008-09, these include oil bonds, fertilizer bonds and FCI bonds. For recent years (2016-17 onwards), these include loans from NSSF and government-serviced bonds issued by public sector entities. Bank recapitilization bonds are not included in the analysis. For FY20, it is assumed that the same amount off-budget liabilities as in FY19 are carried forward.