How much carbon removal do we need?

The IPCC does not offer a simple answer to this question, as it will depend on what other climate policies are implemented, and when. The three blue bars on this chart show the ranges for just one category of pathways: those that have a >50% chance of limiting global heating to 1.5°C with no or limited temperature overshoot.

* According to a 2021 paper published in Nature Climate Change, forests actually absorb 16GtCO2/year, but 8.1Gt of this is lost due to clearing and degradation by humans. The remaining 7.6GtCO2/year would still not count towards the IPCC targets, as these are for additional removals on top of what we do already have - but this figure is provided to give a sense of scale.
Chart: Bertie Harrison-Broninski Source: IPCC, Global Carbon Project, Harris, N.L. et al.