A line chart showing the yield differential between 3-month and 10-year U.S. Treasuries between Dec. 31, 1959 and Feb. 8, 2023. Historically, the yield curve has dropped below zero at the start of recessions. Since May 2022, the yield curve has dropped from a high of +2.44 percentage points to below zero in early November. It ended Feb. 8 at -1.06 percentage points.