What if foreign STEM graduates had fallen by a third since 2003?

A hypothetical scenario estimating the STEM workforce today if foreign graduate flows had been one-third lower every year, 2003–2023

Note: The 2003 and 2023 columns show actual employment data. "Impact" columns show a hypothetical scenario estimating what the 2023 workforce would look like if the annual flow of foreign STEM graduates had been one-third lower every year from 2003 to 2023. "Impact - Stock" is the estimated % change in total STEM workforce size; "Impact - Growth" is the estimated % change in the workforce's growth over that period.
Source: Clemens, Neufeld, and Nice (2025, table 3).Created with Datawrapper