Probability of El Niño or La Niña
Rolling three-month averages; March 2024 to January 2025; Forecast as of April 2024
El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
A line chart showing the probability of El Niño or La Niña. Starting in the March to May 2024 period, the probability of El Niño drops to under 25% and the probability of a La Niña starts rising dramatically. By November 2024 to January 2025, there is an 85% chance a La Niña will be in effect.
