Missouri lines seem surest to pay off for GOP

Missouri's potentially competitive 2026 seats with the party expected the win based on the mapmakers' designs, that party's worst margin in recent statewide races, and the share of selected statewide elections (2016-24) in which it carried the seat

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21 statewide elections included in analysis: President (2016, 2020, 2024); U.S. Senate (2016, 2018, 2022, 2024); Governor (2016, 2020, 2024); Lt. Governor (2016, 2020, 2024); Attorney General (2016, 2020, 2024); Secretary of State (2016, 2020, 2024); Auditor (2018, 2022)

Source: Dave's Redistricting App, state and county-level election sources