Probability of a very strong El Niño in 2026-27

NOAA's Sept. 10 El Niño forecast, using several computer models, suggested a more than 90% likelihood a very strong El Niño will develop by the end of 2026.

Forecasts project conditions over 3-month periods. A strong El Niño is defined as a central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature of 1.5°C or more above average; a very strong El Niño is 2°C or more above average.
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