What separates HR Derby winners from also-rans?

Average Statcast batting percentile grades (from the season in question), plus modeled win probability odds, for Home Run Derby winners and other contest participants, 2015-2023

* A higher percentile means a lower value in a negative category for batters.

Win probability model is based on the three significant predictive categories: Total Barrels, Walk Rate and Chase Rate.
Chart: Neil PaineSource: Baseball SavantGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper