How would an average champ fare against each Super Bowl path?

Probability of an average NFL champ winning out against each Super Bowl winner's set of playoff opponents (based on location-adjusted pregame Elo ratings), 1966-2023

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Location adjustments add 65 Elo points to a home opponent's pregame rating and subtract 65 Elo points from a road opponent's rating.

Chart: Neil PaineSource: Pro-Football-ReferenceCreated with Datawrapper