Higher AI exposure is associated with weaker earnings outcomes

Recreation of Figure 11 from Graduating into Disruption (Census CES 26-56, 2026).
Bachelor’s majors · Adjusted change, 2024 vs. 2022.

Higher AI exposure is associated with weaker earnings outcomes. Earnings change relative to the overall trend (%). Each bubble represents one of 142 bachelor’s majors. Higher exposure is associated with weaker relative outcomes; individual majors vary.

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Outcome zero = the overall trend across majors. Bubble size = number of graduates. Earnings two quarters after graduation; log estimates converted to percentages. AI exposure is standardized (0 = average). Recreated from rounded Table A3 values.

Chart: Phil Hill | On EdTechSource: Orr, Tucker & Warren (2026), Table A3Download image