Table shows CPL’s estimate of the average number of people who left CalFresh in every county in California, from the time period of 2016 to 2019, and also shows the estimated percent who appear eligible despite leaving the program, using both a conservative definition and a reasonable definition.
Data Source: CalFresh enrollment data collected by the California Department of Social Services (CDSS) and quarterly wage earnings records from the California Employment Development Department (EDD). Notes: This table summarizes the estimated average number of cases that leave CalFresh in each county annually, and the share of those cases who appear eligible when they leave. Average is taken across 2016 and 2019. Estimates rounded to the nearest thousandth. We exclude totals for counties with fewer than 1,000 estimated exits in a given year. We only consider cases containing a working-age member to whom we could plausibly match quarterly earnings data from the Employment Development Department (EDD). We identify cases as eligible or ineligible by comparing the sum of all quarterly W2-covered earnings (self-employment and informal cash earnings are not reflected in quarterly earnings data from EDD) of all adults in the case to the case's respective gross income eligibility threshold. We only consider cases who leave CalFresh at the end of a calendar quarter (e.g., March, June, September, and December) in order not to confuse income earned while on or off CalFresh. Accordingly, we estimate the total number of cases leaving each year by identifying the total number of cases that leave at the end of each quarter, and then multiplying that number by three. *Under the conservative definition, we assume all quarterly earnings are earned in the month that the case leaves CalFresh, and compare that sum to 130% of the case's federal poverty level (FPL). **Under the reasonable definition, we assume that quarterly earnings are earned evenly across the quarter (i.e., we divide total quarterly earnings by three to estimate a monthly average), and compare that amount to 130% of the case's FPL.