Graph 2: Real GDP per Capita Growth (%)
Note: Covariates include Employment Share, Tax Share, Technology Share, Economic Freedom Index, Educational Attainment (High School Graduate or Higher) and House Price Index. Donor weights: WA (38%), OR (37%), MA (16%), RI (10%). Pre-treatment RMSPE = 1.01. Treatment year is 2021. Permutation placebo testing reveals negative and statistically significant effects for California relative to its synthetic control in 2022, with standardized empirical p-value of 0.10. Sources: Fraser Institute, FRED, BEA, FHFA, and U.S. Census Bureau.