Estimated durable CDR from removal targets

For an archetype aviation company with 34 tons of residual emissions.

 Like-for-like (durable CDR only)

 Gradual transition (durable CDR)

 Gradual transition (durable and temporary CDR)


Measured in tons CO₂ per year.
Carbon removal targets in SBTi’s standard can create a near term demand signal for CDR. Regardless of the exact number of tons of residual emissions, the “like-for-like” approach may generate 2.5 times as much demand for durable CDR between 2030 and 2035 for a single company, though the gradual transition may create more overall CDR demand. Adoption rates by companies may vary based on the approach chosen for the final standard, so the total increase in demand for durable CDR in the next five years may be lower than 2.5 times.
Source: The residual emissions in this figure are based on the archetype aviation company in Tables 2.3 and 2.5 in SBTi Target-Setting Methods Documentation.