Worse to follow? As this Airwars chart shows, a slowdown in Russian actions in Syria has often foreshadowed a ramp up in casualty events. This was seen in Sept 2017 in Idlib and Deir Ezzor. In Jan 2018, casualty events rose by 118% on the previous month as Russia supported a major regime offensive against rebels who controlled Idlib. June 2018 saw a 272% rise in alleged Russian civilian harm incidents as Moscow backed pro-government forces in a major offensive to oust rebels from Dara’a governorate.