Absent IEEPA Tariffs, Federal Revenue Shows Minimal Change in 10 Years

10-Year Dynamic Federal Revenue Projections Under One Big Beautiful Bill Act with & Without IEEPA Tariffs, 2025-2035, Billions

Note: Revenue projection pre-OBBBA is from the Congressional Budget Office January 2025 projections, while revenue projections for OBBBA and IEEPA tariffs are projected from Tax Foundation's model and include the dynamic effect of both OBBBA and the IEEPA tariffs on federal revenue. Debt amounts only include publicly held debt. These estimates do not include the revenue impact of tariffs levied as part of Section 232 investigations.
Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, September 2025; Congressional Budget Office.
Chart: Garrett Watson, Tax Foundation Download imageGet the data