Probability of El Niño or La Niña
Rolling three-month averages; January to November 2024; Forecast as of February 2024
El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
A line chart showing the probability of El Niño or La Niña. Starting in the April to June 2024 period, the probability of El Niño drops to under 25% and the probability of a La Niña starts rising dramatically. By September to November 2024 there is a 77% chance a La Niña will be in effect.
