Projected Section 301 tariff revenue is over 30 times larger than the estimated economic harm of forced labor

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Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget; Cline Research Note.

Notes: Cline estimates forced labor costs U.S. exporters $3.2 billion in foregone sales to OECD partners, implying a warranted tariff of 0.23%. Foregone trade figures use 2024 OECD trade data per Cline, citing UN Comtrade and BEA. Projected annual revenue derived from CRFB's 10-year Section 301 tariff revenue estimate of $980 billion.