In 2024 swing states, LGBTQ+ voters could be decisive

In four key battleground states in the 2024 election, the estimated population of LGBTQ+ adults is far larger than the winning presidential candidate's margin of victory was in 2020. The LGBTQ+ population in these states also exceeds what current polling indicates will be the victory margin in 2024, which is so narrow as to indicate a statistical tie. With the race extremely tight across the nation, every voter will make a difference.

Forecast is as of Oct. 19, 2024.
Chart: The Conversation, CC-BY-NDSource: Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law, Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEightGet the dataEmbed Download imageCreated with Datawrapper