Dot plot with ranges. IFP estimates that China will have access to about 4.6 million H100-equivalents of AI compute at the end of 2026. About 1.7 million (range 1.4–2.2) is made in China, 1.05 million (0.68–1.5) is rented outside China, 1.0 million (0.38–2.9) is smuggled, and 0.85 million (0.67–1.0) is imported legally.