19 red seats that might become competitive

U.S. House seats where Republicans are clear favorites that could be competitive by incumbent, median race rating, and 2024 presidential margin in district. Seats above the line leaned fewer than 10 points to the right of Donald Trump's +1.5 lead in the 2024 national popular vote.

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*Seat redistricted ahead of 2026 election.
Data reflects new district lines in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Source: Dave's Redistricting App, The Downballot, The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball