Green Party pledge for a £2bn teacher pay uplift would improve recruitment and retention, but be costly

Forecast of postgraduate ITT recruitment compared to target in 2027/28 under different scenarios

Note: Baseline scenario assumes that teacher pay growth matches average earnings growth each year, bursaries and early career payments are fixed at 2024/25 levels and there are no other policy influences on recruitment or retention. The modelled scenario assumes an 8% increase in pay in 2025/26, followed by matching average earnings growth in subsequent years. Total additional policy cost relative to the baseline in 2027/28, including pay on-costs, is £2bn. Values above 200% have been top-coded to 200%.
Source: NFER teacher pay forecast and simulation modelDownload imageCreated with Datawrapper