Fast-Growing Areas Didn’t Shift More Toward Democrats

Knox County precincts that lost eligible voters shifted toward Democrats about as much as those that grew fastest, suggesting newcomers were not the main driver of the 2026 results.

Population change is the change in citizens of voting age between the 2020 and 2024. Shift is the average change in the Republican-minus-Democrat margin across major races, compared with 2022 (governor, U.S. House) and 2024 (president, U.S. Senate, U.S. House). Includes 94 precincts with at least 200 votes in 2026. Line shows the overall trend; the correlation is −0.12, meaning growth and shift were essentially unrelated.
Chart: Hancen Sale | hancensale.comSource: Knox County Election Commission; U.S. Census Bureau