Probability of a strong El Niño forming in 2026

NOAA's May El Niño forecast, using several computer models, suggested a more than 60% likelihood a strong El Niño will form by the end of 2026, but projections can shift as conditions change.

Bars show growing chance of a strong El Nino.

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Forecasts project conditions over 3-month periods. A strong El Niño is defined as a central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature of 1.5°C or more above average.

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