Mapped: Russia's Shadow Warfare

Map plots approximate locations of confirmed and highly likely incidents of Russian Shadow Warfare. Confirmed incidents include those attributed by government and journalistic sources to Russia or Russian-supported perpetrators. Highly likely incidents include those that have been reported by government and journalistic sources with a high likelihood of being attributable to Russia or Russian-supported perpetrators.
Chart: Michael Newton/Isabella Nieminen/Katelynn Henics/Center for European Policy AnalysisSource: Emma Burrows et al.,“Russian Sabotage Across Europe,” Associated Press News, December 18, 2025, https://apnews.com/projects/russian-europe-sabotage/; Sahaidachnyi Security Center, “The Everywhere War: Sub-Threshold Warfare Tracker,”https://sahasec.org/tracker/; Nichita Gurcov,” ACLED data show at least 50 instances of airspace violations of countries on Ukraine’s western borders since 2022 — Expert comment," ACLED, September 11, 2025, https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/acled-data-show-least-50-instances-airspace-violations-countries-ukraines-western; Charlie Edwards and Nate Seidstein,“The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure.” IISS, August 2025, https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/research-papers/2025/08/pub25-095-the-scale-of-russian-sabotage-operations.pdf; and Open-Source Information gathered by CEPA staff. Download image