Risk of COVID-19 Cases On-Campus During the First Week of School

Researchers at the University of Texas developed a model showing how many students and teachers are likely to arrive infected with COVID-19 during the first week of school.

Use the +/- to the right to zoom in on the map. Click on the county of your choice to see how many people would likely be infected upon a return to campus. The range of estimates shows both the high and low estimates for schools with populations of 500 people, including students, teachers and other staffers.

This map was created with data provided to NBC 5 by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. The team developed a model that first uses available health data to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 in the surrounding community. Then the model assumes that the prevalence of the virus in the community will be reflected in the local schools. If, for example, 3% of people in a community are infected in county in a given week, the model assumes that 3 out of every 10 students and staff in a local school would likely be infected as well. For every confirmed lab case in a community, research has shown a larger number of people are infected (some asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic). So the researchers also estimated a high end and low end range of the number of possible infections in the community, which would likely be reflected in the schools. More detailed information on the modeling process used is available by clicking on the source below.