How the horses measure up on speed

The two strongest predictors of Kentucky Derby performance since 2018 are peak graded prep speed and average speed over a horse's final three preps. Among this year's field, Chief Wallabee (9-1) stands alone by both metrics despite winning only one of his three preps.

The chart below shows 17 of the 20 starters. Danon Bourbon (14-1), Wonder Dean (20-1), and Six Speed (40-1) were omitted due to a lack of international prep speed data. The horses with the shortest odds are represented by the largest circles.