Prediction table (2025-26 to 2046–47)
Note: Exports to US (% of MSME exports) =US Share(t)=US Share(t-1)−Δ; Total MSME Export Value (USD bn)= Exports(t)=Exports(t-1)×(1+Growth Rate(t)/100); Annual Export Growth Rate (%) = g(t)=g(t-1)+δ where δ=0.3% until it caps at 6%; Employment in MSMEs (mn) = Employment(t)=Employment(t−1)×(1+g(t)/100×ϵ) where ϵ≈0.35 (employment elasticity w.r.t. exports); Tech Adoption Index (0–100) = T(t)=T(t-1)+ΔT where ΔT ≈ 2.0–2.8 points per year (faster after 2030); Compliance Cost Index (base=100 in 2025) = C(t)=100+α(T(t)−T(2025)) with α≈1.9; Market Diversification Index (0–100) = D(t)=D(2025)+β×(US Share(2025)−US Share(t)) with β≈0.85.
