Probability of El Niño or La Niña
Rolling three-month averages; February to December 2024; Forecast as of March 2024
El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
A line chart showing the probability of El Niño or La Niña. Starting in the April to June 2024 period, the probability of El Niño drops to under 25% and the probability of a La Niña starts rising dramatically. By October to December 2024 there is an 85% chance a La Niña will be in effect.
