Democrats need to win House popular vote by 1.5-2 points to win majority under extreme Republican gerrymander

Number of U.S. House seats won by Democrats under different redistricting proposals,* by Democratic margin in House popular vote

*The worst-case scenario for Dems includes losing 5 seats in TX, 3 in FL, 2 in OH, 1 in IN, and 1 in MO, while gaining 3 in CA. The best case for Democrats adds 5 seats from CA, but subtracts 3 in TX, 3 in FL, 1 in OH, 1 in IN, and 1 in MO.
**This does not simulate the effect of the Supreme Court striking down majority-minority districts mandated by the Voting Rights Act.
Source: Strength In Numbers/gelliottmorris.comGet the dataEmbed Created with Datawrapper