Dems need 1+ seats that lean 10+ toward GOP, but only 2 that unfavorable have flipped since ’94

U.S. Senate seats held by the president's party (◈Democratic /◎Republican) in midterms since 1994, by the state's partisan lean and whether the president's party lost the seat



*Special election
Partisan lean based on the margin for the president's party in a given state in the last presidential election vs. national popular vote margin. E.g., President Trump won Ohio by 11.2 percentage points in 2024 and the national popular vote by 1.5, so Ohio's lean was +9.7 for the president's party.