Over 70% of the MP Materials deal requires future appropriations

While funding for the loan and preferred equity has already been appropriated and spent, spending after FY2025 requires congressional appropriation

*The warrant exercise may well net funds to the government, however is represented here as funds to be appropriated given that the government will need funding available if it chooses to purchase the shares.
**While some funding for these portions has been appropriated for Fiscal Year 2025, the vast majority of the program's funding (through 2035) will require future appropriations

The projections here are based on best estimates from publically available data about the deal's structure. This, in particular, references Deese, Khan, and Reese's midpoint estimate of the deal's NPV, as well as the 8K SEC filing from MP Materials. The not yet appropriated funds are inclusive of funds being returned to the government via the deal's upside sharing mechanism.
Source: "Concentrating Risk Without Promoting Resilience: What the MP Materials Deal Means for U.S. Critical Mineral Strategy;" Deese, Khan, Reese; MIT CEEPR and MP Materials 8K; July 9, 2025