Canada would likely be a Democratic stronghold

The average polling margin between the Democratic and Republican candidates in the 2020, 2022, and 2024 U.S. elections, according to Canadian adults

Leger does not provide public data for the Northwest Territories, Nunavut, or Yukon. The Atlantic provinces—New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island—are combined in Leger's data, as are Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Sample sizes for some lower-population provinces are small and therefore have high margins of error.

For 2020 and 2024 polls, respondents chose between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates. For 2022, respondents chose between "Democratic candidate," "Republican candidate," and "independent candidate." "Don't know" responses are omitted.
Chart: Andrew ManganSource: LegerCreated with Datawrapper