This scenario provides a guide to relative exposures much more accurately than absolute exposure for individual countries.

This is because the calculation is based off the actual net fuel exposure during 2016-17, when Brent averaged US$50, actual 2021 Brent average of US$71, and a scenario for the full year 2022 of Brent average of US$125 - critically, with no change in oil volumes (relative to GDP change) assumed since 2016-17.

For example, this does not take into account major volume reduction for Russia or volume increase for other OPEC+ members.