Where do Democrats gain the most (with engaged voters)?

How much ground are Democrats gaining with each subgroup relative to 2024, looking only at those who say they will "probably" or "definitely" vote?

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Data taken from The Argument's aggregated national registered voter survey data between August and December, 2025. Comparison is done between 2024 two-way presidential margins among all voters who cast a ballot and 2026 generic ballot numbers among those who say they "probably" or "definitely" will vote. Subgroup sizes: n=6119 (all voters), n=654 (Black), n=657 (Hispanic), n=230 (Asian), and n=4440 (White).

Chart: The ArgumentSource: The Argument