Likelihood of limiting global warming in the 21st century, by policy scenario
As of Sept. 30, 2025
A table showing the likelihood of limiting global warming in the 21st century under different policy scenarios. If current policies continue, there is an 80% chance that warming will remain below 3°C, 8% it will be below 2°C and no chance it will be below 1.5°C. The likelihood of achieving lower warming increases under scenarios that assume that parties in the Paris Agreement stick to climate action plans and net zero pledges.