| State | Poll lead | Vote lead | Error | Race called correctly? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 2.8 | 2.4 | -0.4 | Yes |
| Minnesota | 8.6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | Yes |
| New Hampshire | 8.7 | 7.2 | -1.5 | Yes |
| Texas | -2.3 | -6.0 | -3.7 | Yes |
| Michigan | 6.9 | 2.9 | -4.1 | Yes |
| South Carolina | -7.8 | -12.2 | -4.4 | Yes |
| Missouri | -10.4 | -15.9 | -5.5 | Yes |
| Iowa | -2.4 | -8.4 | -6.0 | Yes |
| Ohio | -2.1 | -8.2 | -6.1 | Yes |
| Wisconsin | 6.8 | 0.6 | -6.2 | Yes |
| Florida | 3.4 | -3.4 | -6.8 | No |
