SL Disappointment

Difference between expected wins calculated from pre-season class Elo ratings and actual wins

Week 10, 2026

The pre-season class Elo rating is a good indicator of what we would reliably expect from the team, based on the past couple of seasons' worth of performances. The greater the over- or under-performance of actual regular season wins against this expectation, we less or more disappointing the season has been.

York City Knights were given a standard starting rating of 1500 due to not having appeared in Super League previously. The other promoted clubs picked up from their previous ratings.
Chart: Stats Drop p/b Maroon ObserverSource: Subscribe hereGet the dataDownload imageCreated with Datawrapper