YouGov's first MRP of the 2025 Australian election points to Coalition falling just short of a majority

If a federal election for the House of Representatives was held tomorrow, and these parties were on the ballot in your electorate, how would you vote?

Estimated division projections from the YouGov Australia MRP model.

YouGov 2022
YouGov conducted 40,689 interviews with Australians between 22 January and 12 February 2025. From this data, we used MRP to model 8,732 respondents to project the election. Get the data