Higher For Longer, But How Much Higher?

Atlas forecasts a more gradual rise in interest rates than financial markets anticipate through 2027.

Atlas forecasts are based on an econometric regression model assuming constant annual real GDP growth of 2.5% and inflation of 2.35%, based on the 10-year Treasury breakeven inflation rate. CME FedWatch estimates represent probability-weighted averages of potential federal funds rate outcomes. Federal Reserve projections are based on year-end estimates from the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), interpolated to quarterly intervals. All estimates are as of October 2026.
Chart: Jake SchneiderSource: CME FedWatch, Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), Atlas AnalyticsGet the data