Who is going to win the Senate?

Forecast for the 2026 Senate elections, based on 20,000 simulations generated by a hierarchical Bayesian linear regression model.

Probability   Margin   Rating   Swing from Pres 2024  

An asterisk next to a candidate name indicates that candidate is an incumbent. In the event that there are multiple candidates from the same party, an asterisk indicates at least one of the candidates is an incumbent.
Source: MIT Election & Data Science Lab, Federal Election Commission, The Downballot, Dave's Redistricting App, Redistricting Data Hub, U.S. Census Bureau, FiveThirtyEight, Silver Bulletin, Nathaniel Rakich, New York Times, Wikipedia, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, Roper Center, SnoutCounterGet the dataDownload image