Oil price shocks and U.S. recessions

Major spikes in global oil prices can often be harbingers of economic contractions.

Brent crude spot price (USD/barrel) | Q1 1970–Q1 2026

The line chart shows the spot price for a barrel of Brent crude at the end of each quarter juxtaposed with U.S. GDP growth from Q1 1969 through Q1 2026.

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Note: Areas shaded in light blue indicate recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Chart: Gabriel Cortes / CNBCSource: FactSet
Price as of March 24, 2026