Labour's plan to spend £450m would likely improve teacher supply, but impact would depend on how it's spent

Forecast of postgraduate ITT recruitment compared to target in 2027/28 under different scenarios

Note: Baseline scenario assumes that teacher pay growth matches average earnings growth each year, bursaries and early career payments are fixed at 2024/25 levels and there are no other policy influences on recruitment or retention. The 'pay' scenario assumes a 3.3% pay increase in 2025/26, as opposed to 1.9% in the baseline. The 'pay and FI' scenario assumes a 2.6% pay increase in 2025/26, a new £2,400 retention payment to all teachers in their third year of teaching, bursary increases of £3k for all subjects except PE and history and reformed levelling up premium payments rising from £4k per year in low-FSM schools to £6k per year in high-FSM schools. Values above 200% have been top-coded to 200%.
Source: NFER teacher pay forecast and simulation modelDownload imageCreated with Datawrapper